This Summer I have been logging in heavy hours at The Del Mar Race Track, hustling, gambling and swooping fly girls. I have even taken to eating lemondrops at the track (and I don’t mean those shots that Strip Club Waitress’ always try to get me to do pro-bono, either), all the while enjoying the beautiful 70 degree weather that coastal Southern California has been offering, while the rest of the country sweats it out.
I have been mostly holding court dayside (pre-track) at Red Tracton’s and nightside (post-track) at L’Auberge Del Mar. I did take time to catch Juan Manuel Marquez cook Juan Diaz in the rematch, like I said he would. Another big win for 70’s babies over 80’s babies. And another decent win for my Custom Suit pocket.
I also saw Zenyatta go 18-0 in what Del Mar Thoroughbred Club CEO, Joe Harper, called, “This is the best day Del Mar has ever had. And thanks to not just Zenyatta, but the style and eloquence of people you see in front of you,” from the relaxing confines of The Del Mar Turf Club.
Now after having The Best Feeling again, its time to plan my next strike. Hope your summer is going well also.
May 1st is a big day and the official start to the summer on The G Manifesto Calendar with The Kentucky Derby and Floyd Mayweather VS Sugar Shane Mosley.
Here is how you always can win at the Racetrack:
Your Running Partner must be short, like jockey short.
Find your mark in the crowd. The good thing is, The Racetrack has never had a shortage of suckers looking for “inside tips” and “sure things” as long as you have a little Street Sense (And I don’t mean 2007 Derby winner Street Sense, either).
Approach the mark, Custom Suited Down (very important) and introduce yourself all Charismatic-like (And I don’t mean 1999 Derby winner Charismatic, either) . “My name is Michael Mason”, shake the mark’s hand. “What horses are you betting on?”
(Actually, use an alias or an AKA, and just so its straight, my AK was my AKA since before I learned my ABC’s and the courts sent me to AA and NA, and now it’s all A-OK, Ok?)
The mark usually says something like, “Not sure yet, have you got any picks?”
Say, “No, I wish.” Then look around and say, “Wait, do you see that guy over there?”, while pointing to your running partner/“Jockey” who is busy writing down figures on a of paper.
The mark will usually say something like, “Yeah, I see him. Who is he?”
Reply, “That is XXXX XXXXXX, the famous jockey. He works with Bob Baffert.” (Always insert the name of a famous trainer.)
Then get the mark thinking: “I wonder what he is working on?”
The mark will say, “Me too”.
“If only there was a way we could meet him…Screw it, let’s go talk with him.”
“Good idea”.
To the jockey, “Hi, Michael Mason, we were wondering what you were working on.”
“Um, I was just figuring out how much money I could make today”, the jockey says.
The mark will usually take it from there, “How do you know you will win?”
Then the jockey will lower his voice Real Quiet and say, “I know I am going to win because I am racing. You two gentleman look like you can be trusted, but it must be strictly confidential. Ok? My boss is going to make a killing, and he let me have a piece of the action”. (And I don’t mean 1998 Derby winner Real Quiet, either).
Then say, “You wouldn’t mind sharing a little info would you?”
Jockey says, “I can’t do that. No way. I always keep my word to the boss. If I leak the info, it will affect the odds. And my boss always puts his bets in at the last minute.”
The mark is usually hooked with Greed at this time and will usually spew something like, “Damn. I thought you might have a tip for us.”
Then say, “How about this, if you won’t tell us the horses, can you make bets for us when you do?”
The jockey will consider this for a little bit, and say, “Sure, but I still can’t tell you the name of the horses.”
Say, “That’s ok, I just want to hit a big bet, and here is $8,000.”
The mark will inevitably say, “Here is my $7,500.”
Jockey says, “Ok, I will meet you in The Turf Club after the sixth.”
Leave with the mark, and enthusiastically get a “celebratory” cocktail. Hell, even buy it. And go for gin. (And I don’t mean 1994 Kentucky Derby winner Go for Gin, either).
Give the mark the slip.
There you go, that’s how you always win at The Kentucky Derby. Old-school hustler style.
Sans armes, Ni haine, Ni violence
See you there.
If you like to go a more conventional route and bet on The Kentucky Derby, listen to NW DC’s Andy Beyer:
“In the Kentucky Derby, more than any other race, pace is often a crucial determinant. When the pace is moderate — if, say, the first half-mile is run in 47 seconds or thereabouts — the early leaders often seize a tactical advantage. But every time the first half-mile of the Derby has been run in 45.4 seconds or faster, the pace has taken a destructive toll on all of the early pacesetters. After a 45.38 half-mile in 2005, the leaders collapsed, and the horses running 18-6-11-19 at the four-furlong mark wound up finishing 1-2-3-4, with Giacomo winning at 50 to 1. In 2001, when the pace was 44.86, the three early leaders wound up finishing 13th, 14th and 16th in the field of 17 as Monarchos and other stretch-runners dominated the race.
In a field in which it is hard to muster an ironclad conviction, Ice Box offers the best betting value. Based on the assumption that all the speed horses in the Derby will collapse, my play will be an exacta box of Ice Box and Lookin At Lucky.”
I was there to see Ice Box win at The Florida Derby. Impressive horse.
If you want to go by the “name system” and want a long shot, go with Paddy O’Prado and Jockey Kent Desormeaux.
I know many Americans are having trouble making money in The Down Economy.
If you have been swooping mad amounts of fly girls, and following The G Manifesto to The Seventh Letter, then here is a good money making Down Economy Move for you:
Just last night, before rolling out to a “biz meeting” of sorts, I decided to clean up my crib a little. (After my “reconnaissance mission” of sorts, I planned to get a few cocktails at this local Wimpster bar, and try and swoop some West Coast Hipster Girls.
After putting away the heaters, the balclavas, the Custom Suit with my signature Cookie Monster blue interior draped over an Eames Lounge Chair and Serial Killer Biographies, I checked the my main couch (a fine example of the French, Art Déco period, if I do say myself, although I am not an aficionado).
One pair of earrings was puro ($4,000 retail approx). One watch was junk. The other was a legit girls Rolex (retail $3500 approx). (I took it all to my fence today).
Not bad. About a $12,000 haul. Give or take a G.
So if you want to make some quick dough: Check The Couch.
Side note:
Cleaning the crib also paid dividends. Although I struck out with the West Coast Hipster Girls, I got a call from a fly girl I have been trying to swoop since the 12th grade.
Much like 2009 we expect 2010 to be more of a traders’ market as opposed to sitting in positions for extended periods. A successful trader will need to apply fundamental research and technical research by paying attention to seasonal tendencies, examining correlations commodity to commodity, monitoring the weather and most importantly being flexible with their positions. By this I mean to perhaps scale back your position size because of the volatility, trade both futures and options, and use hedging strategies. The two principal conditions to look out for this year are who wins the argument on inflation vs. no inflation and decoupling relationships between asset classes. To keep up to speed with our ideas we encourage investors to follow in our weekly commentary or daily blog.
The substantial swings we expect to see in 2010 commodity wide will force investors to be more attentive with their portfolios. Speculators, hedgers, and producers need to recognize that with this comes excellent opportunity but much more risk. While it is unlikely that we will encounter the same type of swings this year as the previous two, one will need to bring their best game to be successful at marketing, hedging, or speculating this calendar year. The good news is that more investors are trading commodities which are quickly becoming a critical component of the global economic system and a necessary asset in your portfolio.
We are looking forward to 2010 and see many opportunities that we’ll outline here. For further explanation and to keep up on an evolving basis follow our Weekly commentaries and on our blog’s Daily thought at www.mbwealth.com. Feel free to visit and give us feedback, we are always eager to see what other traders and investors are doing.
Metals: Copper is not a market you can put a position on and forget about as swings have just become too large. Prices in the last 4 years have been under $1 and over $4. Off their lows which were established in late 08’ early 09’, prices have rocketed higher by almost 270%. At this point we say prices are too high and we would expect a set back; a trade back to $2.40- 2.60 is not out of the question. The demand out of China was one of the main driving factors in 09’ and if we were to see that pace slow one would expect a correction to ensue so pay close attention to copper earmarked to China this year. Copper continues to act as a very accurate barometer on global economic sentiment and if prices are either extreme or moving higher or lower at a swift pace do not ignore the warning signs. Gold saw record highs last year trading over $1220/ounce but after a wash out early this year we would expect new record highs. Before we would expect that to really develop we would anticipate the masses to get out of the trade and for this trade to be far less crowded. As we hinted at last year, when the markets are leaning only one way the ensuing move is generally in the opposite direction. Though we feel gold has and will continue to serve as a store for value, we expect the move higher in 2010 largely to be driven by more investors realizing that we have inflation around the corner. The 50 day moving average comes in just below $1000/ounce and at about that level serves as a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level so that would make sense for a back off point. The closer we get to that level or if we even get below that the level, the lower one is able to buy gold and the more bullish we are. On the upside we are expecting to see a print very close to $1400/ounce this year. Silver outperformed gold in 09’ and we expect the same outcome in this calendar year. Silver failed to get back to its highs reached in early 08’ while gold hit fresh record highs, so in my eyes silver has some catching up to do. Furthermore, the gold/silver ratio that you need to be aware of as a metals trader we view to be way too wide. This spread has decreased from the wide level we saw in late 08’ of 85:1, but at the current level the spread is still at 61:1 when historically it has been closer to 30:1. The 50 day moving average in silver comes in just above $15 and though we think a loss of 18% from the current level may be a stretch, we would maintain a buy the dips mentality in silver with a price objective on the upside of $22-24 in 2010. In both gold and silver we would suggest buying the dips we see the first part of the year because if things go as planned we may not see those levels again this year. Additionally we would suggest scaling into the trades and utilizing a combination of futures and options as we expect volatility to persist.
Financials: While there are consequences if a large institution tries to move the Equity market and it is frowned upon when Central banks intervene in the currency market, I presume that when the government manipulates the bond markets we are supposed to turn a blind eye. That is what the story was in 2009 as we feel that the government controlled the flow and moved the Treasury market higher and lower as it saw fit. What should be the driving force in this market this year, is the perceived direction of interest rates and the eventual tightening which we expect to start around mid-year. The Fed may want to leave rates low for an extended period but when countries around the globe raise their rates the US cannot let the spreads widen significantly or it will suffer dreadful consequences. If we are right on stocks moving lower the flow of money may keep prices of Treasuries afloat temporally early in the year, but we suggest a short bias in Treasuries in 2010 as we expect more downside than upside potential. We see a trading range in 30-yr bonds of 124’00 to 108’00 and in 10-yr notes of 123’00 to 110’00. More than likely most of our trade recommendations in the Treasury complex will be the short end of the curve as opposed to the long end as we will be positioning clients in long dated put options and short futures in Euro-dollars to take advantage of the coming interest rate tightening. We made a similar prediction last year and hindsight tells us we were early but we continue to think risk/reward this is one of the best trades one may see in a lifetime. Let’s get real where can interest rates go from here? The key is to scale into positions and not add any substantial size until the market proves you right. We think once the Fed starts raising rates this trade could last 2-3 years. The key will be to stay with the trade, recognize this trade is not glamorous but if rates move to 7.5%-10% in the coming years this trade should reap hefty rewards. I should have known as the S&P bottomed in March 09’ at “666” that there was an uncharacteristic move to follow. The 50% appreciation got many investors back some money that was well deserved but what we should take away from a move like no other is we may be facing a crisis like no other. This should serve as a warning much like a loud horn before a devastating crash. By no stretch of the imagination do we think we’ve seen the worst; with growing unemployment, another leg down in real estate, the lack of consumer spending, mounting US debt, the rising cost of commodities and a rise in interest rates to come we Do NOT see the light at the end of the tunnel. Early this year we could see an attempt at 1175/1200 in the S&P, 11000/11250 in the Dow and 1950/2000 in the NASDAQ but we expect a sizeable correction to follow. Are we calling for a double dip, not at this point, but our downside targets are as follows: 825/875 in the S&P and 8000/8500 in the Dow, and 1400 in the NASDAQ. This market will continue be a stock pickers market and the days of buying and holding are dead. With still so many unanswered questions it is extremely difficult to predict what the right move may be. As investors we are in unchartered waters and making up the rules as we go.
For specific strategies contact us via e-mail http://www.mbwealth.com or telephone at (888) 920-9997 / 954-929-9898. For the most part investors reading this analysis want to be more hands on, however we suggest taking a look at our managed futures section and consider diversifying further via CTA’s with proven track records.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Then I remembered Poppin’ My Collar which sampled Willie Hutch’s “The Theme From The Mack”:
I had never seen the video before. But I saw some solid lessons there.
I know many people are having a tough time stacking chips in the Down Economy, and these little hustlers at the beginning of the video really show The Art of Selling.
They use a great opener, get right down to biz, offer a solution, compliment the buyer, Then Close Hard.
I really love that closing line; “So, are you gonna help us brothers out, Or What?”
Its a real universal closing line that you can almost use in any situation:
Here are the 2nd G Manifesto Awards. The 1st G Manifesto Awards, are here: The G Manifesto Awards, The Best of 2007. I missed 2008 as I was busy swooping girls and had a little street War to contend with at the time. (Also check out the Outlook for 2008, where I was like the Nouriel Roubini of this Game s*it, of sorts).
Again, these Awards are places or things that I have been to or experienced in 2009. So don’t get itchy if your local nightclub in Cleveland doesn’t make the list.
Best Comeback City: New Orleans. My love affair with New Orleans is well documented. This year was the first year since Katrina where the swagger seemed to return. Do as a G does; visit often and drop CASH.
Best High-Action City: Tijuana, Mexico. I wouldn’t exactly call it a love affair with Tijuana, but I have spent mad time there and turned mad dollars there. The place is actually a lot safer now than the papers would lead you to believe.
Best Day Game City: Buenos Aires. The volume of fly girls for Street Game makes it hard to ignore.
Best Beach Locals: The Somali Pirates. These guys made the boys from The North Shore and The Bra Boys seem tame. They made mad dough, raged hard, protected their coast, swooped mad girls and even caused real estate bubbles in other countries. Hell, I have been seriously considering rolling down there and joining the fun. I wonder if there are some un-crowded points to be had to the brain?
Best International Restaurant: Restaurante Arzak in San Sebastian. Spain is really kicking out the best grinds right now. And Restaurante Arzak is top rank. I am frothing at the mouth thinking about it. Will be there again in May.
Best US Restaurant: Galatories. The best goddamn restaurant in America. I love how they even make President’s wait for a table.
Me?
I get top tier service.
Honorable Mention: Gramercy Tavern. I have to include this spot because of the first class treatment, pro-bono wine pours and the sweet breads. Nothing about it the meal was “so-so”, more like “fabuloso”. Additionally, I was politicking with this fly chick and digging her moves because she smooth and she choose to pay dues.
Best International Hotel: Four Seasons Hotel George V, Paris, France. Decadence since 1928. I really like the indoor pool surrounded by tromp l’oeil murals of the Versailles gardens.
Best US Hotel: The Waldorf Towers, New York. The one bedroom Grand suites with the separate entrance are style and elegance defined. They are not cheap (about 5k), but they really do pay for themselves.
Best Fight: Juan Manuel Marquez VS Juan Diaz. Marquez proves once again how he is The G in a come from behind devastating knockout of an 80’s baby.
Most Masterful Performance: Floyd Mayweather, Jr. VS Juan Manuel Marquez.
Best Blog: Roissy in DC. I would have said The G Manifesto, but that would have seemed rigged, right? In all seriousness, Roissy kicked out gem after gem almost every day of the year and truly transcended.
Best Forum: RooshV Forum. If you like traveling and swooping fly foreign girls, then this is your forum.
Best Hip-Hop Track: I Hate My Job, Cam’ron. Nothing captured 2009 better than Cam’s “recession rap” track when most American’s were coming out with a pitiful rookerful of money.
Funny too.
Ayo I’m lookin’ for a job, ain’t nobody hiring,
Then I ask the boss, “when y’all doin’ firing?”
Great sample from Barbara Mandrell’s “Sleeping Single In A Double Bed”.
Best Break out Hip-Hop Artist: No, not Asher Roth or Drake. It’s Black Milk. “Losing Out” was enough to do it.
Best Soul Track and Album: Maxwell – Pretty Wings and BLACKsummers’night. The cat was gone for eight years. No wonder this decade was terrible. Come to think of it, anyone seen D’Angelo?
Woman of The Year: Ashley Alexandra Dupré. It is truly amazing how this girl has kept her mouth shut (so to speak) for the entire year. She deserves all the props in the world, and a shining beacon of hope for her self-absorbed peers of her generation.
Honorable Mention: Sonia Sotomayor
G of the Year: Joaquín Guzmán Loera. No one did it bigger in 2009 than “El Chapo”. Untouchable like Elliot Ness. Hell, he even came in at #701 on Forbes’ list of richest people in the world with an estimated net worth of $2 billion. A low estimate if I have ever seen one.
Sol Price, a retail magnate who three decades ago altered both the American landscape and the American way of shopping by founding Price Club, the first nationwide members-only discount warehouse, died on Monday at his home in La Jolla, Calif. He was 93.
With Robert, Mr. Price started the first Price Club in 1976 in a cavernous former airplane parts factory in an unfashionable part of San Diego. The business, which offered consumer goods as varied as tires, books and household appliances at extremely low prices, proved to be the leading edge in the multibillion-dollar influx of discount big-box stores, among them Costco, BJ’s Wholesale Club and Sam’s Club.
I am a couple of days late on this story, as I was busy swooping fly girls in the Caribe, getting mad shoulder rubs, while puffing on Marlboro Gold’s.
I was deeply saddened by the news of Mr. Price’s passing, as I have some ties to the family. My heart goes out to them.
A True G, top tier biz cat, Democratic powerhouse and always gave back. And did it with Style. People’s Champ if the ever was one.
The main lesson from him: Keep overhead to an absolute minimum.
You know your G when Sam Walton bites your steez:
One of the chief beneficiaries of Mr. Price’s legacy, Sam Walton, acknowledged the debt in his 1992 memoir, “Made in America” (Doubleday, 1992; with John Huey). Mr. Walton, the founder of Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club, wrote, “I guess I’ve stolen — I actually prefer the word ‘borrowed’ — as many ideas from Sol Price as from anybody else in the business.”
Last night I took a trip down to Miami to visit with Jim Rogers at a book signing for his most recent book entitled: “A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing.” After speaking briefly about his 3 year tour around the globe he spoke a little about the aforementioned book and took questions from the audience.
These are the general themes I took away in no particular order:
Jim said numerous times he is a terrible market timer, he went as far to say he’s not the worst in the room but the worst in the world…very humble.
While Jim’s primary residence is in Singapore he also has a dwelling here in Florida, what I found interesting is that he rents and does not own his home here in Florida. The fact that he sold a lavish residence in New York before the real estate crash and rents here in Florida may be that his timing is better in real estate.
Though he waited later than most, he stated one of his proudest accomplishments was having children. For one of the most successful investors in our time that speaks volumes about the father he most likely is.
Not only did he move his family to Singapore but his two daughters will be fluent in Mandarin and Spanish.
He did not go into specifics about his bank accounts but his two daughters have Swiss bank accounts, not accounts denominated in US dollars. What does that say about his feeling on the US dollar?
He has no short exposure in US Treasuries, currently he thinks the multi-decade long bull market in this complex is over and he believed he would be taking a hefty short position at some time in the future.
Jim Rogers: Audit the Fed, Then Abolish It
One of the questions from the audience pertained to getting an MBA. Jim’s response in so many words was that it would be a complete waste of money and time. He suggested traveling around the world would be a more valuable experience. He went as far to say that sitting in a hot tub in Boston one could learn more than going to some of the prestigious universities there.
Jim had little good to say about the current choices Central banks are making and implied serious inflation is all but inevitable. He expects rates to be much higher but gave little time frame. He said jokingly we may run out of trees if the printing presses continue to run at their current pace.
The only real estate advice I recall him saying is buying a farm in the Mid-west to take advantage of the boom he expects in Commodity prices.
Bull cycles in commodities in the past have lasted between 18 and 20 years. In his view we have another decade or so in the current cycle.
As a commodity trader, what I found most interesting was that in his jacket pocket he had a gold and silver coin and a sugar packet. This was probably to prove a point but it really hit home with me and other audience members.
Globe “Overdue For a Currency Crisis”; Why Jim Rogers Is Buying Dollars
Perhaps one of the most staggering things to me was how little of the general population was in that room, the US and around the globe that are investing in commodities. It will change and I believe those that exercise discipline in the next 5-10 years stand to deeply benefit.
Find attached some historical pricing on several commodities to put things in perspective on how low and how high prices have been in the past and where we sit today. These figures are not adjusted for inflation. Being Rogers is a terrible market timer he suggested looking at buying when prices are depressed and selling when prices are elevated.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
What Recovery? America’s Problems “Getting Worse, Not Better,” Jim Rogers Says
If you are not familiar with Gary Vaynerchuck, he is a cat that took a family liquor store from $5 million in sales to $50 million in sales using the Internet and social media. He also got a 7 sticks book deal. Not bad in a Down Economy.
His book is basically about using your passion in life to make money. The book gives some great advice on exactly how to do that and build your personal brand using social media.
This is a pretty remarkable time we live in. Younger G’s should appreciate it. You really can become anything you want to these days. Manifesto Destiny.
Why you should by this book:
1. If you are unhappy with your job and you would like to do something that you love doing.
2. If you want to learn how to turn your passion into a money maker.
3. You want to learn whats going down in the world today.
I just thought of this full proof plan to become a Millionaire if you are a girl.
Here are the steps:
Step One: Be super hot. (Country or Southern accent preferable. This will help Middle America “relate” to you.) Blond is best. Not too exotic.
Step Two: Get reasonably famous. Get on a wack Reality TV Show, make a sex-tape with some weesh, actor. Or better yet, do both.
Step Three: Gain weight, get super fat. I mean really fat.
Step Four: Go to the beach while super fat and let the paparazzi take tons of pictures of you in a bikini.
Step Five: Set up a company that produces some kind of herbal weight loss drug. It doesn’t have to work (none of them do anyways).
Step Six: Lose all the weight.
Step Seven: Go to the beach, and let all the mags take pictures of you.
Step Eight: Go on talk show circuit and yap about how you used your miracle weight loss pill to shed the fat.
Every idiot fat f*ck housewife in Middle America will buy your pills for $59.99 per month (Make sure it’s a re-bill.).
Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
The Blueprint for Money Making
