With his usual holiday cheer Marc Faber’s most recent interview had him slamming the derivative markets. In an interview with Reuters he went over his predictions for 2012 which calls for more monetary easing, QE 3 etc. He also continues to worry about the growing EU sovereign debt crisis and the lack of real solutions. This was confirmed today after the ECB announced more banks than previously known tapped liquidity lines to the tune of $600 billion.
Of course his long-term views are decidedly bearish. He thinks people in 5 years time will have maybe 50% of their money. This wealth loss will be due to either equity collapses or inflationary pressures due to monetary easing. Obviously political solutions are out of the question at this point. One can look at the US government and see utter dysfunction. The GOP led house has refused to extend a tax cut due to lobbyist pressures on certain pet projects. Then in the EU you have France and the UK with increasingly cold diplomatic relations.
“I am convinced the whole derivatives market will cease to exit. Will become zero. And when it happens I don’t know: you can postpone the problems with monetary measures for a long time but you can’t solve them… Greece should have defaulted – it would have sent a message that not all derivatives are equal because it depends on the counterparty.”
Looks like 2012 is shaping up to be another interesting year. The Mayans may be wrong about the end of the world, but if Marc Faber is right we won’t be able to tell the difference.
Jim Rogers thinks Marc Faber has got it wrong about China, when he says the country is possibly headed for a hard landing, which would lead to a devastating impact on commodities around the world.
“Marc still does not understand China. There are going to be several hard landings in the next few years, but China’s will be less hard overall than others such as Greece, U.S., et al,” Rogers told CNBC in an email.
Rogers says some parts of China’s economy will have a “hard landing” but other parts will continue to boom. He says the commodity market will have a correction, but rebutted Faber’s view that it would be devastating.
“Yes, there will be consolidations in the commodity bull market just as all markets have consolidations,” he said. “In 1987, stocks declined 40-80 percent worldwide, but it was not the end of the secular bull market in stocks.”
Rogers said he was still long commodities, adding that gold went up 600 percent in the 1970s and then corrected by 50 percent scaring a lot of people. “It then continued its secular bull market and rose 850 percent. Corrections are the normal way of all markets.”
According to Faber, Rogers’ bullish call on commodities is misplaced. “If I was always bullish about commodities and completely missed out on the crash in 2008, then obviously, having tied essentially my reputation to commodities, I’d continue to be bullish,” Faber said.
But Rogers said Faber had got it wrong when it came to his call in 2008. “I proclaimed repeatedly far and wide that one should not buy commodities in the run up phase. I also explained that I was not selling mine since we were [and are] in a secular bull market,” Rogers said.
“I explained that my shorts of Citibank, Fannie Mae, all the investment banks and homebuilders, plus my long position in the Japanese yen would protect me in any sell-offs. When one’s shorts decline 90-100 percent, it is a good year even when one’s longs decline,” Rogers added.
According to Rogers, Faber is the one who has made many wrong calls, arguing that he “totally missed” the secular bull market in commodities that began in early 1999.
“Also back in those days, he and his friends proclaimed often that China was a mess and would continue to be so,” Rogers said. “They all were wildly excited about Russia. Some of his friends even left China to start operations in Russia. We all know how that resulted.”
Mr Rogers, the respected currency trader and hedge fund pioneer, cautioned that when the downturn takes hold “the world is going to be in worse shape because the world has shot all its bullets.”
Speaking in an interview with business television channel CNBC, the septuagenarian investor said that “since the beginning of time” there has been a recession every four-to-six years, and that’s mean another one is due around 2012.
However, he said that due to the extraordinary measures already adopted by central banks and governments around the world, the arsenal of available tools to combat the next recession is somewhat lacking.
With reference to Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, he said: “Is Mr Bernanke going to print more money than he already has? No, the world would run out of trees.”
Meanwhile, Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller house price index, warned that the next downturn may come even sooner.
“For me a double-dip is another recession before we’ve healed from this recession. The probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50pc. I actually expect it,” he said. His prediction came despite the S&P/Case-Shiller index for May showing a 4.6pc year-on-year increase in house prices in 20 major US conurbations.
Ingrid Casares & Chris Paciello Back in Biz with The Light Group at the Delano?
If you believe the rumors, South Beach is about to go retro, back to the days when people actually danced at clubs, when real celebrities came to party because they wanted to and not for a carefully orchestrated, trite tabloid photo op, and when the words South Beach and hip together in the same sentence was anything but oxymoronic. That’s right, we have excellent sources telling us that the Captain and Tennille of 90s Miami nightlife, Chris Paciello and Ingrid Casares, are teaming up again, this time as partners in the food and beverage operations at the Delano left recently vacant by Jeffrey Chodorow, who was bought out by the hotel’s owners, Morgans Hotel Group, for $20 million.
Chris Paciello back on South Beach scene at Delano
For the first time since he was released from federal prison five years ago, Miami Beach’s fallen nightscape overlord has returned to where it all started.
Chris Paciello, now 40 and described by some who have run into him as “subdued and humbled,” is settling down at the Delano Hotel.
He’ll be living there for the next few months as he works to give back to the legendary beachside resort its No. 1 ranking among hipsters and celebrities.
Deja view: Mixed reviews on the return of Chris Paciello
Ever since we broke the news that old school South Beach club guy Chris Paciello was returning to his old stomping grounds and possibly reuniting with his former partner Ingrid Casares in the nightlife biz, the reactions have been as polarizing as the Tea Party vs. the Democrats only, instead of tea, it would be vodka. On one side you have the champions, cheerleaders and aging club kids who can overlook his past and subscribe to the Nostalgia Party (there’s already a Chris Paciello Fan Club and “Chris Paciello, The King Is Back” page on Facebook), while on the other side you have those who say it’s just wrong to glorify the return of someone with a criminal past—we’ll call them the Concerned Party. Both sides will argue back and forth over this until the lights come on in the new Light Group-sanctioned Delano hot spot, so there’s really no end to the debate.
Some say people are jealous or nervous that the reunion of the team some say made South Beach the nightlife capital it once was will ruin their own businesses, and others say that people are downright nervous in general, not for business purposes, but for reasons involving personal safety. It’s no secret Paciello had a violent past, for which he has served time in prison. It’s no secret that he had enemies, some who still live and work on South Beach. We spoke to nightlife veteran Gerry Kelly, currently serving as marketing and nightlife operator at Trio On the Bay, who worked with Paciello and wasn’t exactly BFF with the guy back in the day. “I was surprised to hear he was returning to Miami,” Kelly admitted. “I do believe we all learn from our experiences in life. Miami’s nightlife and entertainment culture has changed so much since the late 90s that we all have to adapt and change to keep up with the never ending new trends. The city is definitely big enough for everyone and I wish him the best.”
‘Limelight’: The Rise And Fall Of The Church Of Rave
On Friday, a documentary ostensibly about the rise and fall of a one time club king named Peter Gatien opened in New York (it opens around the country next month). In the early to mid-1990s – the height of rave culture in the U.S. – Gatien owned the biggest clubs in New York City, including Limelight, which lived in a deconsecrated Episcopal Church in the Chelsea neighborhood. Today Gatien lives in Toronto, where he was deported in 2003 after pleading guilty to tax evasion. And Limelight has become a mall. It calls itself a “Festival of Shops.”
Much of the story told in Limelight will be familiar to readers of Clubland, a book chronicling mid-’90s nightlife written by Frank Owen, who covered Limelight at its height and followed its scandalous end in the pages of local alternative weekly the Village Voice. It certainly was to the documentary’s director, Billy Corben, who read the book as he was pursuing another documentary about the man who ran the biggest club in Miami in the mid-’90s. Owen appears frequently as a kind of expert witness in Limelight.
“I had read Clubland because of our interest in Chris Paciello and Liquid in South Beach, and the Miami angle,” says Corben, best known for 2006’s Cocaine Cowboys. Corben and producing partner Albert Spellman still intend to make a movie about Paciello. But first, they’ve made Limelight, which focuses on Gatien, the eye-patched Canadian nightclub impresario who owned Limelight, Palladium, Tunnel and Club U.S.A., who was brought to trial by the City of New York under mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s mid-’90s crime crackdown, alleging that Gatien was overseeing a massive drug ring in his clubs.
Jim Rogers breaks down commodities from an old interview.
Jim Rogers : Missing out on Commodities?
Matthew Bradbard’s daily commodity round up:
Brace for the Fed as we expect it to be a market mover. Indecision in the oil market as prices close virtually unchanged today. If we fail to make a new contract high in the next few sessions we should resume the set back we’ve been forecasting, in June that would be a trade over $114.05. A settlement below the 20 day MA should confirm a move lower but before either scenario happens we’re just guessing, that level is $108.90 in June WTI. We suggest the sidelines in natural gas willing to be a seller on a spike higher. We cut losses for clients that still held bear put spreads in the June ES; it resulted in a loss of approximately $400/per position including fees.
Jim Rogers, Custom Suits, Wynn Las Vegas, Drug Wars, Jesse Ventura, Online Gambling and Steve Wynn Again
Undisclosed Location, South America –
Jim Rogers says:
Q. Given that kind of outlook, where are you investing in China?
Jim Rogers. The only thing I’m buying in China is the RMB. I can’t just pick up the phone and buy millions of RMB as you know, but when I can buy more RMB, I do so legally. I’m not buying Chinese shares. I would like to buy Chinese shares when they collapse. I don’t know when the next collapse will come, but there’s always a collapse in every country, so I would buy more. My view toward China is different from any other investment. I buy these shares, and I plan to hold onto them for my grandchildren – my children, anyway. I hope they own them for their grandchildren, because I’m convinced that China will be the great country of the 21st century.
As dining rooms fill with T-shirt- and Converse-clad social networkers, is dressing up the new way to stand out?
Over the past several years, the dress codes abided and enforced at those ceremonies of formality and occasion, at everywhere from fine-dining restaurants to evening soirées, have become mostly unspoken, unwritten or loosened like so many Hermès ties. And just as these rules—that for so many years were out of favor—disappear, a new generation of formality-loving dandies is choosing (not being told) to dress up.
Some say the casual-Friday-everyday mandate came from the top: the White House. When President Obama took office in 2009, he quickly declared the end of George W. Bush’s jacket-and-tie requirement for staffers and the policy of no jeans, sneakers, miniskirts, tank tops or flip-flops for visitors.
Now, from Manhattan to L.A., the majority of the iconic old-school restaurants that once mandated jackets and ties for men have replaced “required” with “requested.” At the iconic Polo Lounge at the Beverly Hills Hotel—a second home to Hollywood’s elite since 1912—the once strictly enforced dress code is now “no tank-tops after 10 p.m.” “A few years ago, we had a ‘no-baseball-caps’ policy after 7 p.m.,” said a Polo Lounge manager, “but after Steven Spielberg was turned away for wearing one, we dropped the policy, like, the next day.” Other proper-attire outposts such as Houston’s Da Marco and Baltimore’s The Prime Rib have also recently replaced their jacket-and-tie requirements, with “business casual” encouraged. Some mainstays are simply opening their doors entirely to the sportswear-favoring public.
These establishments tip their fedoras to many of the old haunts that have now eased their rules—and to some that have not. At the 105-year-old New Orleans restaurant Galatoire’s, a weathered plaque on the edifice reads: “Proper Attire Required: Jackets after 5 p.m. and All Day Sunday; Long Pants for Lunch Tues.-Sun.” And that’s the way it will stay, according to John Georges, the principal owner of the French Creole cuisine stronghold. “New Orleans is a town of traditions, with deep respect for them,” he said. “We’re not going to change because of the needs of out-of-towners, or because of the dressing trends of the day,” Mr. Georges said. “If you stick to your principles it pays off—in whatever economy.” In other words, some things never go out of style. A point that will certainly hit home as a new generation of wing-tipped Taleses and Wolfes hit the town, showing everyone how it’s done, again.
Revenue on the Las Vegas strip declined for the fourth straight month in February, the Gaming Control Board reported on Friday. On a year-over-year basis, revenue fell 9.6% in the month, against a 33% gain the previous year. Because the comp was so difficult, analysts didn’t think the result was awful, but they considered some numbers troubling.
The biggest culprit? Analysts are blaming baccarat, which more than doubled (in terms of revenue) last year as Chinese New Year fell in mid-February. Baccarat revenues fell 31% on the strip this February, when the Chinese New Year fell early in the month, the gaming board said. Revenue from table games excluding baccarat actually rose 2.7%.
“Today’s numbers are disappointing,” wrote Hudson Securities analyst Robert LaFleur. “During 4Q10 earnings season we heard commentary that Chinese New Year was very strong. While, drop was basically flat and the comp was tough the strong growth in baccarat that had been sustaining the Strip through much of the downturn appears to be evaporating.”
Organised crime is moving south from Mexico into a bunch of small countries far too weak to deal with it
FOR most of the 20th century, the small countries of Central America were a backwater, a tropical playground for dictators and adventurers. In the 1970s and 1980s they turned briefly into a violent cockpit of the cold war as Marxist-inspired guerrillas battled US-backed tyrants. Places like El Salvador and Nicaragua generated daily headlines around the world and bitter partisan battles in Washington. When the cold war ended, peace and democracy prevailed and Central America slipped back into oblivion. But its underlying problems—which include poverty, torpid economies, weak states, youth gangs, corruption and natural disasters—never went away.
Now violence is escalating once more in Central America, for a new reason. Two decades ago the United States Coast Guard shut down the Caribbean cocaine route, so the trade shifted to Mexico. Mexico has started to fight back; and its continuing offensive against the drugs mafias has pushed them down into Central America.
Whatever the weaknesses of the Mexican state, it is a Leviathan compared with the likes of Guatemala or Honduras. Large areas of Guatemala—including some of its prisons—are out of the government’s control; and, despite the efforts of its president, the government is infiltrated by the mafia. The countries of Central America’s northern triangle (Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador) are now among the most violent places on earth, deadlier even than most conventional war zones (see article). So weak are their judicial systems that in Guatemala, for example, only one murder in 20 is punished.
U.S. Government Moves To Shut Down World’s Biggest Online Poker Companies
Federal prosecutors today unsealed a sweeping indictment against Isai Scheinberg and Raymond Bitar, founders of the world’s biggest online poker companies, and moved to try to shut down their businesses.
The indictment filed by Preet Bharara, the U.S. Attorney in Manhattan, charges Scheinberg, the founder of PokerStars, and Bitar, the founder of Full Tilt Poker, as well as nine other individuals, accusing them of operating illegal gambling businesses. Federal prosecutors also filed a civil lawsuit seeking $3 billion in civil money laundering penalties, alleging the online poker companies disguised money they received from U.S. poker players as payments to online merchants selling jewelry and golf balls.
The U.S. Attorney in Manhattan moved to try to shut down the online poker business in America by seizing five Internet domain names, including pokerstars.com and fulltiltpoker.com, used by the three main companies facilitating online poker games in the U.S. In addition, a federal judge issued a restraining order against 76 bank accounts in 14 countries utilized by those online poker firms.
Billionaire Steve Wynn Makes Big Online Poker Bet With PokerStars
In a dramatic move that will forever change the online poker landscape, billionaire Steve Wynn has announced he is joining up with PokerStars, the world’s biggest online gaming company, to establish a strategic relationship that aims to regulate online poker in the U.S.
“We are convinced that the lack of regulation of Internet gaming within the US must change,” said Wynn, chief executive of Las Vegas casino company Wynn Resorts, in a statement. “We must recognize that this activity is occurring and that law enforcement does not have the tools to stop it.”
How Casino Mogul Steve Wynn Went All In On Online Poker and PokerStars
Nearly two years ago billionaire Las Vegas casino mogul Steve Wynn met Isai Scheinberg, the founder of PokerStars, the world’s biggest online gaming firm, for the first time. Scheinberg generally avoids traveling to the U.S., but the meeting took place on Wynn’s boat while it was anchored in the Mediterranean Sea. Over a three-hour lunch, Scheinberg tried to convince Wynn that the two of them should work together to regulate online poker in the U.S. with an eye toward setting up a joint venture.
It was a tough sell. Wynn had for years opposed online gaming. He was not a big user of technology. When Wynn needed information from the Internet he would just ask his secretary to find it. He also thought it would be tough to regulate online poker. “If the Internet people got in trouble it would bring the wrath of the government down on us in the live gaming community out here in Las Vegas,” Wynn recalls thinking prior to the meeting. “I didn’t see the business opportunity, I just saw problems.”
During their lunch Wynn found Scheinberg to be quiet and reserved, carefully precise with his language and paying close attention to detail. Still, Wynn didn’t take the meeting too seriously. He did, however, take up Scheinberg’s offer to learn more in the ensuing months about how PokerStars conducted business. Wynn says what he learned shocked him, especially the company’s ability to identify any abnormal activity on its web site and stop it. “I only had misconceptions, I had no idea on a number of issues,” says Wynn. “They are highly regulated [in Europe] and I found out they had 1,300 employees and the average salary is $110,000 because they are so intellectual in the design of the programs. One of my concerns was about young people playing. It turns out they have more control about young people playing than we do.”
Jim Rogers: Buy the rmb [renminbi, the Chinese currency].
Bill Bonner: We are in a period much like the period following WWI, in which the great debts and losses of the war had to be reckoned with. It is an era of great risk. The U.S. faces many of the same challenges faced by Germany and England after WWI. Like England, it has huge debts. It is a waning imperial power. And it has the world’s reserve currency. And like Germany, it is attempting to fix its problems by printing more money. This is not a good time to be long either U.S. stocks or U.S. bonds.
Peter Schiff: Don’t be suckered into the idea that recovery is just around the corner. The current climate is like living in a hurricane or earthquake zone; it’s important to stay vigilant because you never know when disaster will strike. Physical gold is the financial equivalent of a flashlight, first-aid kit, and store of canned goods. It’s a basic way to protect yourself from any eventuality. From there, if you’re looking for returns, there are plenty of foreign markets with strong fundamentals, as well as commodities that feed those markets.
Investing in the U.S. is now driven largely by force of habit. It’s a habit you should resolve to break.
Jeffrey Christian: Do not invest based on what you believe, but on what you know. Gold is a market, like other markets. It rises and falls. You probably want to stay long gold on a long-term basis, but may want to cull the weaker gold assets from your portfolio in the first quarter, and put some hedges in place to protect a long-term core long gold position against the potential of significant price weakness over the next two years or so. Such a period of weakness would be an excellent time to add to one’s gold assets.
John Williams: As an economist, I look for the U.S. dollar ultimately to lose virtually all of its current purchasing power. Accordingly, for those living in a U.S. dollar-denominated world, it would make sense to move to preserve wealth and assets over the long-term. Physical gold is a primary hedge (as is silver). Holding some stronger currencies outside the U.S. dollar, as well as having some assets outside the United States, also may make sense.
Steve Henningsen: Dramamine (for volatile markets), a stash of cash (for potential investment opportunities), and move some of your assets offshore if you haven’t already.
Frank Trotter: My advice is first to look at the other side of your balance sheet – the liability and risk equation – before seeking out absolute gains. What are your goals, what resources do you already have to meet those goals, and what events (health, income stream, upheavals) might impact these risks? Place some assets to hedge these risks directly, then look to diversify globally into markets with higher growth potential than we see here at home, and that may balance your global purchasing power risk. Almost like a religion, we have had the phrase “Stocks are the only legitimate hedge against inflation” beaten into our heads. I say, look at assets that define inflation like commodities and currencies and evaluate where these fit into your risk portfolio.
Krassimir Petrov: Last year I recommended silver, and I would stick to silver again, despite the phenomenal run in 2010. Then it gets tricky. I usually don’t recommend diversification, but now I would again recommend a broad portfolio of commodities. Investing in 2011 should be easy: stay out of real estate, out of bonds, out of fiat currencies, and out of stocks; stay fully invested in commodities, overweight gold and silver.
What to watch in 2011: stay focused on the sovereign debt crisis and bond yields. Spiking yields will trigger the next stage of the crisis.
Bob Hoye: Once past the early part of 2011, the best returns are likely to be obtained from the junior gold exploration sector.
Here is Jim Rogers breaking down the economic impact of Japan disaster:
“normally when something like this happens it leads to a chance to buy things , all man made or natural disasters in the past meant that you could buy something, now I am not buying anything I am just watching at the moment , this is horrible and we do not know how it all gonna wind up, I would thing buying commodities would be better than buying stocks but I might buy both”, says Jim Rogers
Crude oil prices have been rising. Do you see supply constraints on mounting pressure from West Asia or speculation?
Of course, it’s supply constraints. Libya has closed down some of its oil production, while Egypt is having problems with its production. There are turmoils in many countries and this is causing supply problems.
These may be temporary problems, but the world, in the mean time, is losing some of its inventory. So, if there is calm and peace tomorrow, we may have oil go down for a while, but the basic problem that the world is running out of known oil reserves continues.
What is your medium-term outlook on crude oil?
Crude oil will continue to go higher, though there can be intermittent corrections. The price of oil is going to continue to rise for years to come.
The dollar index has fallen almost 6 per cent in the past three months. Do you feel that the dollar is losing its appeal as the reserve currency?
Yes, it is an ongoing process. The correction has been severe. But, that is going to happen with the US dollar, as it continues to lose its status as the reserve currency. It is a terribly flawed currency.
Are you investing in other currencies? Which is your favourite and why?
The renmibi is my favourite currency. China has a gigantic balance of trade surplus, and it is the largest creditor nation in the world.
It has a lot of things going for it. Clearly, a currency that can and will go up is the renmibi.
The Chinese are trying to hold it down now, rightly or wrongly. And, I think it is a mistake to try to hold it down. But, the renmibi is the currency that has to appreciate a lot in the next few years.
The bull run has just begun in agricultural commodities. How long do you see that lasting?
I am very bullish on agricultural commodities, probably more than other class of commodities. My favourite agri-commodity is rice.
What is your outlook for gold and silver?
I own both gold and silver and I am neither selling nor buying these two precious metals at current levels.
This week, there are supposedly going to be mass demonstrations/protests in Saudi Arabia. If this happens, gold and silver prices will surge and I will then buy. So, I am not buying gold and silver right now, but I am certainly not selling.
After the recent correction, how are you viewing the Indian equities?
I am just watching. I have sold/short emerging markets and emerging market (EM) ETFs.
EMs have been one of the most exploited sectors of the market in the last two-three years. I have sold/short emerging market and I am not buying any markets anywhere except commodities.
This is a great book about quite possibly the greatest stock speculator of all time, Jesse Livermore. Perhaps more importantly, Livermore was a dashing financier and bigtime Playboy. He was also a Sharp dresser and Entered The Dragon as well:
“Jesse Livermore walked into the casino dressed in white tie and tails. Livermore enjoyed clothes. The tails had been custom made for him in England. He had four sets made several years before, and they remained unaltered. Livermore’s weight never varied.”
Great trading and gambling philosophy is explained in the book that unfortunately for Livermore all ended in tears.
“Only speculate if you can make it a full time job. Don’t take tips of any kind, no matter where they come from—don’t worry about catching the tops or bottoms, it’s a fools play. Keep the number of stocks to a controllable number. It’s hard to herd cats and it’s hard to track a lot of securities. Take your losses quickly and don’t brood about them, try to learn from them but mistakes are as inevitable as death—and only make a big move, a real big plunge, when the highest number of factors is in your favor, the highest probability for success is present.”
This book is written by the writer of Confessions of an Economic Hitman, John Perkins. Perkins is a smart cat, and also an International Playboy, so like most smart cats and International Playboys, he is worth listening to. He give a good breakdown of the Corporatocracy, gives solutions that we must follow or we will be ruined.
A woman tells him:
“Stop being so greedy, and so selfish. Realize there is more to the world than your big houses and fancy stores. People are starving and you worry about oil for your cars. Babies are dying of thirst and you search the fashion pages for the latest styles. Nations like ours are drowning in poverty, but your people don’t even hear our cries for help. You shut your ears to the voices of those who try to tell you these things. You label them radicals or Communists. You must open your hearts to the poor and downtrodden, instead of driving them further into poverty and servitude. There’s not much time left. If you don’t change, you’re doomed.”
This is a book by G, Jim Rogers, the swashbuckling traveler and legendary investor to his two young daughters.
“Understand this: If everyone saw himself as a citizen of the world rathter than of his town, city or country, the world would be a more peaceful better place where success in all forms is abundant and available to all. That’s not to say that we can’t be patriotic and love our country. But we must always be open to those who are different, because people from different backgrounds have much to teach us and vice versa.”
“Probably the best advice I can give to anyone, anywhere in the world is to have your children and grandchildren learn Mandarin. For their generation, Mandarin and English will be the most important languages in the world.”
This book is about Jim Rogers’ Guinness Book of World Records trip around the world. He gives a great breakdown of the world and continually drops investment gems:
“I differentiate between trading and investing. Traders are the short-term guys, and some of them are spectacular at it. I am hopeless at it—perhaps the world’s worst trader. I see myself as an investor. I like to buy things and own them forever. And what success I have had in investing has usually come from buying a stock that is very cheap or that I think is very cheap. Even if you are wrong, when buying something cheap you are probably not going to lose a lot of money. But buying something simply because it is cheap is not good enough—it could stay cheap forever. You have to see a positive change coming, something that within the next two or three years everybody else will recognize as a positive change.”