Risk Aversion by Commodity Speculators
Risk Aversion by Commodity Speculators
Weekly Commentary
For July 13th– July 17th 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard
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Speculators may be running for the exit doors on talks of more government involvement in the futures market, but I feel their exit may be premature seeing that the government is just talking at this point. Since the government has not screwed things up enough they are now discussing more stringent controls in the commodities markets. I welcome regulation when it works and the theory of instituting position limits sounds good, however the likelihood of volatility decreasing on that action is debatable. Contrary to popular opinion it is the speculator that plays a vital role in providing liquidity in the marketplace and without their involvement price distortions may in fact increase. Is it completely impracticable to think that changes in supply & demand could have a more significant impact on pricing? Perhaps the fact that commodities are becoming a more mainstream asset class, recent estimates show that $25 billion has poured into commodities in the first half of 09’.
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Energies
The DOE reported crude oil supplies were down 2.9 million barrels, supplies of gasoline were up 1.9 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 2.0 million barrels. August oil traded lower by $5.65 losing ground 7 out of the last 8 sessions, the longest losing streak since December. Support comes in at the 100 day moving average at 58.82 followed by 56.00. Resistance is at 62.00 followed by the 50 day moving average at 65.15. Currently we have no exposure with clients. August RBOB was lower by 10.25 cents. A potential triple bottom has formed between 1.6250 and 1.63 but stronger support is seen at 1.55/1.56. Being prices are extremely oversold we may see a bounce, resistance is first seen at 1.72 followed by 1.77. August heating oil lost 16.94 trading lower the last 8 consecutive sessions. Prices at the end of the week started to show some resolve closing almost 4 cents off their lows. Support at 1.50 resistance at 1.60.
The DOE reported underground supplies of natural gas were up 75 billion cubic feet last week to 2.796 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now up 27% from a year ago. August natural gas was down 24 cents to a new contract low. We’ve been buying clients October $1 call spreads now for the last 3 to 4 weeks and are down but not out. If we do not see a reversal within the next 7/10 days we may start buying November instead of October. Last week’s low at 3.34 should support with resistance at 3.60 followed by 3.80.
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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions.
