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Do option traders need to be fluent in Greek?

» 05 June 2009 » In money » No Comments

Do option traders need to be fluent in Greek?
June 4, 2009
By: Matthew Bradbard

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

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MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything out side of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth

The Option Greeks
When trading commodities there are 2 basic ways to trade: futures or options. Depending on the portfolio size, the risk tolerance and ultimate goals we will suggest assorted strategies to take advantage of the same anticipated move in an underlying commodity. That may mean an individual speculating on gold moving higher if they foresee inflation, a farmer buying put options in agriculture as a hedge or perhaps a combination of futures and options depending on the exact plan. Trading futures ultimately means one is trading on margin which some are not comfortable, with while trading options may offer an alternative without the sleepless nights. When purchasing options one’s risk is limited to the premium paid plus any fees for the transaction. When writing or granting options the risk becomes greater, without going into intricate details, it may be useful to be more familiar with the terms below when trading commodity options. Find below an explanation of the “option Greeks.” It is important for an active options trader to at least become familiar with these characteristics since he/she may need to make quick decisions about trading strategies and risk management on the fly.

Delta
Delta is the amount by which the option changes compared to the underlying commodity. It is a measure of the probability that an option will expire in-the-money. Call deltas can be interpreted as the probability that the option will finish in-the-money. Put deltas can be interpreted as -1 times the probability that the option will finish in-the-money. An at-the-money option, which has a delta of approximately 0.5, has roughly a 50/50 chance of ending up “in-the-money”. For example, if an at-the-money sugar call option has a delta of 0.5, and if sugar makes a 100 tick move higher, the premium on the option will increase approximately by 50 ticks (0.5 x 100 = 50), or $560 (each tick in premium is worth $11.20).

An explanation of delta values is below:
Call options: 0 to 1 Put options: -1 to 0
In the money options: Delta approaches 1 (call: +1, put: -1)
At the money options: Delta is about 0.5 (call: +0.5, put: -0.5)
Deep out of the money options: Delta approaches 0
Long calls have a positive delta: You want the market to go up
Short calls have a negative delta: You want the market to go down
Long puts have a negative delta: You want the market to go down
Short puts have a positive delta: You want the market to go up

Gamma
Gamma, measures the rate of change of delta. When call options are deep out-of-the-money, they generally have a small delta. This is because changes in the underlying commodity bring about only minute changes in the price of the option. But as the call option gets closer to the money, resulting from a continued rise in the price of the underlying commodity, the delta gets larger.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

The gamma of a long option position (both calls and puts) is always positive. At-the-money options have the largest gamma. The further an option goes “in-the-money” or, “out-of-the-money” will affect the gamma. If you are long gamma you expect the underlying to make large moves. Traders with long positions expect positive gamma. If you are short gamma you expect the underlying to remain relatively inactive. Traders with short positions expect negative gamma. Gamma is a useful indication of the risk associated with a futures position. A large gamma number, whether positive or negative indicates a high degree of risk and a low gamma number indicates a low degree of risk.

Theta

Theta is defined as the change in the price of an option for a 1 day decrease in the time left before expiration. At-the-money options have the greatest time value and the greatest rate of time decay (theta). The further an option goes “in-the-money” or “out-of-the-money”, will affect the theta. As volatility falls, the time value declines and hence theta will also decline. Simply put Theta is the rate at which an option loses its value as each day passes. The inherent assumption is that the options are a decaying asset. The way I explain this is like a melting ice cube on a warm summer day. Long options have negative theta. Short options have positive theta. As time passes, the theta of at-the-money options increases, the theta of deep-in-the-money and out-of-the-money options decreases.

Theta has the exact opposite characteristics of gamma. Thus the size of a gamma position correlates to the size of the theta position. A large positive gamma position goes in hand with a large negative theta position, while a large negative gamma position goes hand in hand with a large positive theta position. What this means is that every option position is a tradeoff between market movement and time decay.

Vega
Vega is the change in the value of an option for a 1 percentage point increase in implied volatility of the underlying commodities price. Implied volatility is measured as the annualized standard deviation of a commodity’s daily price changes. The Vega of a long option position (calls and puts) is always positive. At-the-money options have the greatest Vega. The further an option goes “in-the-money” or “out-of-the-money”, the smaller the Vega. As time passes, Vega decreases. Time amplifies the effect of volatility changes. As a result, Vega is greater for longer dated options than for shorter dated options. Simply put Vega is the option’s change in theoretical value with a change in volatility. Most options have a positive Vega because they gain value with rising volatility and lose with falling volatility. Vega of most options decline as time decreases and you get closer to expiration. Vega tells you approximately how much an option price will increase or decrease given an increase or decrease in the level of implied volatility.

In conclusion it would be beneficial to be at least familiar with these terms when trading options. While it is not a necessity to be an expert we believe knowledge is power and it helps to know when you are making or loosing money and WHY?

For specific strategies contact us via e-mail www.mbwealth.com or telephone at (888) 920-9997 / 954-929-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you. For the most part investors reading this analysis want to be more hands on, however we suggest taking a look at our managed futures section and consider diversifying further via CTA’s with proven track records: MB Wealth Managed Futures

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

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Strip Club Tip: Lobster Trapping

» 02 June 2009 » In Game, Gentleman's Club, Girls, Nightlife » 9 Comments

Strip Club Tip: Lobster Trapping

Click Here to Download The G Manifesto’s Free Gentleman’s Club Report (pdf)

Here is another classic Advanced Gentleman’s Club move I have been using to great effect for years:

One of the most effective moves you can do at a Gentleman’s Club is called “Lobster Trapping” in the G’s argot. This also works especially well in a Down Economy.

Basically, Lobster Trapping is going to a Gentleman’s Club early in the night, let’s say 10pm, and post up. You only want to stay about an hour or so.

Wale- “Penthouse Anthem”

During that hour, you want to do the typical G things we all know and love: roll in Dolo, suited down, flash CASH, smoke jacks and tell lies like OJ on trial. You know, International Playboy type stuff. Tell girls you are only staying for a “little while” because your friend is opening a new dope Wine Bar or something. Display mad swag.

Which for me, is no bother since I got more Game than Parker Brothers, Can’t Lose like Parker Lewis, and drink more wine than Robert Parker.

Basically, make the Exotic or Exotics crestfallen that they can’t roll with you. This is the setting the “trap” part of Lobster Trapping. When they beg you to come back, give them your Appypolly loggys and reply “Maybe”.

Click Here to Buy The Game: Penetrating the Secret Society of Pickup Artists by Neil Strauss

Next you want to shoot to some kind of civilian lounge or nightclub for a while and crunch some civilian numbers. Maybe some waitress girls, Nightlife Princesses, Platinum Diggers or swoop a promoter’s or DJ’s girlfriend. Spend about an hour and half or so doing this (these time estimates are based on a Typical West Coast time schedule. Las Vegas or Miami Beach would obviously be different). This will give the Exotic Dancers just enough time to miss you, for the Washington Apple shots to take hold, Beeks to have effect and for “regular guy” to make you look good.

After that non-sense, shoot back to the Gentleman’s Club. It’s time to check the “harvesting” of your “traps” for Exotics. (And I don’t mean that Super fly Model style Exotic Dancer I know from The Rhino in Las Vegas named Exotica, real name Cindy, either).

Girls will be all over you like lobsters on rotting, decaying Dover Sole. Or a rival you delivered down to Davey Jones Locker.

Close Artistically
.

Click Here to Download The G Manifesto’s Free Gentleman’s Club Report (pdf)

Be sure to check The G Manifesto’s Gentleman’s Club Resources:

Top Ten Strip Club Mistakes

Advanced move for Picking up Exotic Dancers

The Gentleman’s Club Theorem AKA The Local Bar Theorem

Manifesto Destiny II: Innovative Gentleman’s Club Concepts

Manifesto Destiny: The Gentleman’s Club

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

Kut Klose- I Like

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Cocaine Cowboys: Griselda Blanco’s son Michael Corleone

» 02 June 2009 » In Guide, People » 1 Comment

Cocaine Cowboys: Griselda Blanco’s son Michael Corleone

Click Here to Buy Cocaine Cowboys

Source Via Rakontur

Click Here to Buy Cocaine Cowboys

Click Here for Fool’s Paradise: Players, Poseurs, and the Culture of Excess in South Beach by Steven Gaines

Click Here for The South Beach War Report Part I: The Basics

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

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Scheme (Molemen) – The Manifesto EP

» 02 June 2009 » In hip hop » 1 Comment

Scheme (Molemen) – The Manifesto EP

Click Here to Buy Cocaine Cowboys

Scheme-Chicano from Scheme on Vimeo.

www.molemen.com

The Rest is Up to You…

Michael Porfirio Mason
AKA The Peoples Champ
AKA GFK, Jr.
AKA The Sly, Slick and the Wicked
AKA The Voodoo Child
The Guide to Getting More out of Life
http://www.thegmanifesto.com

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An Evolving Market: Why education is vital in trading

» 01 June 2009 » In money » 1 Comment

An Evolving Market: Why education is vital in trading

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

We have continued to do our weekly newsletters and daily blogs as scheduled but have not done as many topic specific articles of late. We are reaching out to get some suggestions from would be commodity investors or active traders on some topics of interest or subjects you would like clarified. This week we will be publishing an article on why understanding the “Greeks” is important to commodity options trading. E-mail me or call for further suggestions.

To find out exactly how we are positioning our clients in commodity futures and options,
Contact us today at 1-888-920-9997. Don’t forget to tell them The G Manifesto sent you.

Financials

Stocks: The Dow rose 223 points or 2.7% to 8500, the S&P picked up 3.6% or 32 points to 919 while the NASDAQ gained 82 points or 5% to 1774. With May now at our backs we’ve put in three positive months in a row, marking the best 3 month performance by percentage since 98’. This is an improvement from the doomsayer’s just months ago. We’ve been consistent in our assessment and still expect a 10-15% correction is around the corner. For much of May the S&P was range bound between 875 and 930 and the Dow between 8100 and 8550, will this continue? Although we expect a downward break, the move out of these ranges should signal the next direction.

Buy The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets: How to Keep Your Portfolio Up When the Market is Down by Peter Schiff

Click Here for Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day Trader

Bonds: September 30-yr bonds were lower by 11.5 ticks last week; trading lower 9 out of the last 10 weeks. Prices were able to rally just over 3 basis points off the weekly lows so we should get an additional bounce. Support is seen between 116’10/116’20 with resistance at 118’20. In the coming weeks we expect a move up to 120’00/121’00. September 10-yr notes were lower by 18.5 ticks last week. Support is seen at 116’00 while resistance comes in between 117’20/118’00. As for the Euro-dollar, stay short March 10’ as long as 99.095 remains as the contract high. As for options we advised clients to buy December 09’ 99.00, 98.75, and 98.50 puts. Contact us for pricing. NFP # out Friday; loss of 525,000 jobs and unemployment rate just over 9% is factored in.

Currencies

There are multiple central bank meetings this week; RBA on Tuesday, BoE, ECB and BoC on Thursday.

The commodity currencies racked up big gains last week. The Aussie finished 164 ticks higher and in the last 13 weeks has made it to higher ground 10 of those weeks. For the month of May the Aussie finished 27% higher. We could see a 5-8 cent correction with no chart damage. Resistance is at .8100 while support is at .7850 followed by .7700. The Loonie gained 223 ticks, higher the last 9 days. It continues to follow energies and metals which have burst higher of late. Resistance is between .9225/.9275. .9000 should serve as support but don’t rule out a trade to .8700.

The Kiwi picked up 216 ticks and has been positive 5 out of the last 6 weeks. Support is seen at .6250 while resistance is at .6500. These 3 currencies may have moved too far too fast and a correction should follow.

The Euro was higher by 108 ticks last week as all attempts at lower trades were met with buying. Support comes in between 1.39/1.3925 while resistance comes in at 1.4175 followed by 1.4350.
The Swissie continues to follow the Euro’s lead, up 141 ticks last week trading to levels not seen since January. Resistance comes in at .9450 and support at .9250.

The British pound was higher by 215 ticks last week trading to a 7 month high and after 2 failed attempts to get short we would stand aside. Resistance is seen at 1.6425 and support at 1.5725.
The yen was lower by 50 ticks last week but things could have been much worse if had not been for the 189 tick advance on Friday. Support is seen at the 50 day moving average at 1.0250 while resistance comes in between 1.06/1.0625. We advised clients to buy July 105/108 call spreads last week for $1000 with a target of $2000+.

The US dollar was lower by 74 ticks last week to trade to its lowest price since 9/8 making a new 8 month low. We see no significant support until 77.50 but prices are over extended to the downside so don’t rule out a dead cat bounce. Resistance comes in at 80.00 followed by 81.00.

Continue Reading about Metals

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_____________________________________________________________________________________Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.

Continue reading...

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